UO economist says new recession could hit


Oregon’s economy showed a slight uptick in September, but University of Oregon economist Tim Duy says the odds for another recession in 2012 are still better than 50%.

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Oregon’s economy showed a slight uptick in September, but University of Oregon economist Tim Duy says the odds for another recession in 2012 are still better than 50%.

After falling for five months in a row, the UO index rose 0.2 percent in September, said Duy, who is author of the economic index. The index, which projects the outlook for the next few months, stood at 89.1 in September. It uses 1997 as the base year of 100; the higher the number, the better the outlook.

Although first-time unemployment claims fell in September to their lowest level since March, and manufacturing has picked up a bit, “the overall labor market remains anemic,” Duy said.

While there’s been some improvement lately in the economy, recent growth has been well below the overall growth trend of the past two decades, he said. Manufacturing, construction and the service industries have all contributed to the weakness, Duy said.

Read more at The Register-Guard.

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